The next generation of Internet – Social and tech trends that are shaping our digital future

Introduction We are living in a global era where one can easily receive, share, or search for information through the internet. The application of internet technology transcends the public institutions, security agencies to individuals, thanks to Leonard Kleinrock and other innovators who came up with the World Wide Web (www) technology (Zimmermann, 2012). The intent to use computers for communication purposes is traceable to the early initial stages of computing history. By 1969, U.S. Defense department had already begun its research on network protocols (Zimmermann, 2012). From this early time to date, several changes have occurred in the information and communication industry. The rate of technological evolution in this industry is fast and no one knows what the society would wake up to in the next generation. The developments tend to build on the existing technologies. The major difference between the past and the present is the application of the internet in the society. The initial interest was to use the internet for aiding communication among the security organs. Today, the entire world is accessible through the World Wide Web and it has not stopped more changes are yet to come. 1. Evolution of the Internet: A timeline of the World Wide Web Although many people regard internet as a new platform for communication, it origin is more than four decade old. The early studies of 1950s and 1960s set the precedent of the internet technology. In tracing the history of interne, it is difficult to omit the input of Advanced Research Projects Agency Network (ARPANET or ARPA). In 1958, U.S. government established this agency under the defense department. In 1961, Leonard Kleinrock published the first article, ‘Informational Flow in Large Communication Nets,’ believed to have set the precedent for the World Wide Web (Leiner, Cerf. Clark, Kahn, et al.). Many researchers including J. C. R. Kleinrock, W. Clark, Paul Baran, Larry Robert among others wrote on the concept of internet. In 1965, Larry Roberts working with researchers tested the First Network in which he applied the packet switching technology to link two computers (Zimmermann, 2012). In the following year, ARPA began a project on internet. After working on the project for two years, in 1969, ARPRANET installed the first node at UCLA Network Measurement Centre. The interface message processor hooked up to Sigma 7 Computer. In the same year, ARPANET installed second node in Stanford Research Institute connecting SDS 940 Computer. In this second attempt, the researchers were successful in sending the first message through the internet. ARPANET installed two more nodes, one in the University of California, Santa Barbara. It was connected to IBM 360/75 and the next installed in University of Utah and linked to a DEC PDP-10. In 1970, there was mass connection across the country following the installation of the fifth node at BBN, Cambridge. In July of 1970, University of Hawaii produced the first packet radio network, Alohanet. In March of 1972, Ray Tomlinson came up with the first basic email at BBN for ARPANET. The work of Tomlinson is evident to date. The sign ‘@’ has received wide acceptance and use among the internet users. In 1973, ARPANET made the first international connection to England (University College of London and NORSAR, Norway. The Intel computer and electronic company released 8080 processor meant for Packet Network Interconnection. The protocol was of Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) design. In 1976, Apple Computer Company joined in the actualization of the internet program (Leiner, et al.). It sent an e-mail to Queen Elizabeth II. More research on improving the internet continued and in 1978, researchers divided TCP into two Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) and Internet Protocol (IP). Tim Berners-Lee came up with a program “Enquire within” in 1980. This program was a predecessor of the World Wide Web. The idea of Berners-Lee was to use the internet inquire information. In 1983, three software engineers Jon Postel, Craig Partridge, and Paul Mockapetris developed the Domain Name System edu., com, mil, org, net, and int. created (Leiner, et al). From 1983 to 1990, a lot of changes occurred in the search for interconnection between one computer to the other as well as the use of computer to extract information. In 1990, Tim Berners-Lee created World Wide Web. In 1992, Jean Armour Polly came up with concept of ‘surfing the internet’. The concept of surfing the internet was the hallmark of internet use. From 1992 to date, various researchers have managed to up with new ideas building on the preexisting ones. The computers produced after 1992 were tailored to meet the internet requirements. Similarly, programmers came up with programs that have improved the use of the internet. For instance, computer and software companies strived to produce programs that could accommodate the internet technology. For example, in 1994 Microsoft produced Windows 95 tailored to accommodate the use of internet. More software programs intended to improve interface through internet came into being. For example, in 1995 Sun Microsystems released Java and in 1996 marked the genesis of browser war following the acquisition of tv.com by CNET. In this year, the Microsoft and Netscape were the major players in the industry. The war of web browser intensified between Netscape and Microsoft (Leiner, et al). The former announced a plan to provide free web browsing while the latter held that consumers should get it at a fee. This war ended in 1999 following settlement of this dispute in court. In the same year, Shawn Fanning developed Napster, software that paved way for peer-to-peer sharing. Unfortunately, the advent of this software heralded the copyright war in the music industry. In 2000, the number of internet users grew considerable signalizing the trust that people had on the internet use (Erl, Puttini, & Mahmood, 2013). It emerged that many people could share information with their family member using the internet technology. There been much hype about dot.com in the years preceding 2000 leading to the rush into investing in the dot.com industry. Unfortunately, the investment did not work to the expectation of the investors. This resulted to the dot.com bubble. Another issue related to internet worth mentioning about year 2000 is that the number of internet users doubled profusely. In 2001, the European Union approved a pact on internet crime (Leiner, et al). From 2002 to date use of internet for connection has admitted a number of changes. First, the number of people using the internet grew tremendously. Second, more companies cropped and created web browsers and other interfaces for connection. Apple came up with iTunes in 2007 barely one year after Google. Inc acquired YouTube. Remarkably, Apple surpassed its goal of serving 1 billion customers. In the same year, a survey conducted by Internet World Statistics revealed that the number of people using the internet had grown to 1.114 billion. The demand for internet service began increasing steadily in 2002 and to date nearly every member of the society is aware of internet existence or uses the same. The use of internet has been growing and changing since the invention of this technology. Initially, internet was useful in security communication. It evolved to linking people in various locations. In mid 2000s, internet was useful platform for social linking following to the creation of social media platforms such as FaceBook, Twitter, YouTube, among others. Experts predict that the rate at which the internet use is showing that soon it would wide spread as the use of electricity. The internet use transcends various social needs ranging from informal communication, formal communication, social networking, and business. The trajectory for internet use is suggestive that there is growth in number of users who find it necessary for various purposes. For instance, the Americans and well as citizens of other parts of the world are on the limelight for using internet to monitor world news, elections, as well as make web search. The use of internet fueled the recently concluded Arab spring. Some critics agree that the internet era has set a new precedence on how to agitate social change. The people interested in the respective social issue easily resort to sharing their grievances through the internet. Shift of patterns – Digital megatrends influencing the internet Taylor (2013) agrees that technology innovation and invention seem to be propagating unpremeditated rate. It is difficult to for anyone to predict what is hatching. The growth internet usage as well as change in pattern of internet use tends to assert the above proposition. Initially, internet was synonymous with computers, today the trend has greatly changed. Surfing is the order of business of majority who own internet enabled phones, thanks to innovation and competition in the mobile phone industry. CISCO argues that the present internet consumption trends are likely to change in the future (Taylor, 2013). There are several trends believed to the forces behind the change in internet and there are likely to change in future. 2.1 Convergence of internet and mobile Technology invention and innovation in the mobile phone industry have played a critical role in changing the consumption of internet services. The mobile phone companies tend to propagate innovation and invention because they are struggling to maintain a competitive edge in the industry. This bid has heralded changes in the nature of services that one can receive from a mobile phone. For example, today mobile phone performs more than one function. As the mobile phone companies struggled to maintain their markets, they introduced new technology in the mobile phones so that the customers could continue buying. The use of mobile phone across the globe stands at approximately 80% of the world population. It is interestingly to learn that the mobile phone devices in 97 countries have superseded the number of people. Literary, this means the use of mobile phone is not only common, but also requisite. As mentioned above, the mobile phone companies propagated the integration of internet services in the mobile phones. While the idea of integrating the internet technology had intended to woo many people into buying the mobile phones, more changes seem to roll out. Today, mobile phone is an extension of the internet. The mobile phone devices available in the market seem to offer services that were a preserve of personal computers. For example, going to the internet did not cross the mind of the mobile phone inventor. This seems to show that as technology innovation occurs, the world is to expect more changes. The platform for connecting to internet changed from computers to mobile phone following the integration of GPRS in the mobile phones. The mobile phone manufacturers did not stop at this point. These companies seem to marrying the technologies that were synonymous with the computer systems to the phones. The result of this development is the creation of internet-enabled phones. Presently, mobile phone manufacturers are thinking of how to improve the speed of the internet in the mobile phones. The continuous urge to create a sophisticated gadget that is likely to win more customers in the market means marrying the internet technology to the mobile communication gadgets. The young generation 18-29 years shows a tendency of using mobile phones for uses such as downloading of music and videos as well as linking to the social media as opposed to using the gadgets for making calls. While it is a common phenomenon to see the customers changing their taste and preferences for products, the changes in the mobile phones including the integration of the internet technology came as a surprise to many. More inventions and innovation in the industry often find the intended customers unaware of changes that are likely to occur in the products. In light with this argument, predicting the future trends in the internet industry is quite difficult. The pattern of consumption of mobile phones has influenced some critics into settling that mobile phones are the platform for expanding internet. Additionally, the idea seems to force the mobile phone manufacturers to value the impact of mobile phones as they build new technology. For example, the present versions of Smartphone have the internet features such as download and access browsers. Since the target market requires gadgets that would serve complex needs, development of more complex gadget should not come as surprise. 2.2 Cloud Computing Bhargav and Kumar, (2010) believe that the evolution of World Wide Web culminated into cloud computing. The evolutionary trend from the mainframe computers in 1960s to server to client computers in 1980s and later the development of web is transition of technology from the primitive to more complex trend. Cloud computing refers to the connection of very many computers using network of remote servers (Bhargav, & Kumar, 2010). Unlike the preceding trends, this technology has enabled connection of computers from host network remote serves rather than a local serve. Here, the host remote server does the following store, manage, and process data as well as enabling mobile interconnection. Cloud technology has changed the manner in which people consume the internet. Here one does not need to connect his or her computer to the host network using a linking capable. It provides for mobile connection in the same way as mobile phones link with the network providers. The world is fast moving towards cloud computing. The most developed nations have embraced this technology and the same is finding its ways into the developing nations. Some of the features of cloud computing include fast mobile internet connections. From 2000 to 2008, the mode of linking to the network was through peer-to-peer file sharing because the majority of this traffic did not emanate from a data centre, instead the internet users had a direct connection (Furht & Escalante, 2010). In fact, the technology had close relationship with the telephone connection where the users had to link through physical connection. In the advent of the cloud computing, as the name suggest, the connection is through mobile or wireless connection. This technological advancement seems to link the data network to mobile phones in the same way as it links to the personal computers. Software manufactures such as Microsoft have moved forth to manufacture software that would accommodate this trend. One needs to install the cloud computing software in order to enjoy this service. The cloud computing technology literally allows mobile phone users and personal computers to share network data. It follow that one is capable of tapping data from a mobile phone or mobile phone might tap the internet data used by the computers if the internet data is not protected. The trend shows the changes in the manner of consumption of the internet. Since the advent of cloud computing in 2008, internet data originate from data center (Erl, Puttini, & Mahmood, 2013). The cloud connectivity is similar to the mobile phone network connectivity. Seemingly, the connection of all computers across the globe would soon embrace this trend. Pew Research Center (2014) believes that cloud computing enable the world connect to the internet from all corners. The connection links mobile phone devices as well as computer gadgets. In the wake of this technology, the connection of people to internet technology would increase massively because cloud connection increases the connection to the internet. Largely, one does not need to have a computer to connect to the internet, but a gadget that has GPRS. Presently, mobile phone manufacturers tend to be leading the world towards the realization of the global internet connectivity. Since 80% of the world population own mobile phones, with the changes in mobile phone technology, the internet would soon be appealing to everyone in the globe. In fact, analysts are projecting US$ 100 billion market for cloud connectivity by 2015 (Pew Research Center, 2014). Innovation in the computing industry is responsible for the change that we are yet to see. The world seems to moving from less complex technology to complex one day by day. Largely, the attempt t improve the existing technology tends to pave way for more complex technology. The speed of the internet is another thing that seems to be evolving alongside other changes. 2.3. Uberfication Technology has significantly affected the manner company’s conduct their businesses. The effects range from logistic management to marketing. Many companies are shaking up their traditional trends and replacing the same with what the mobile and social media offer. It did not cut across the minds of the business community that internet especially the social media would become a platform for marketing and promoting company products. Today, the many organizations have embraced this trend, thanks to Facebook, twitter, and many other social media platforms. Uberfication is a term coiled around the changes brought by technologies like social media and mobile phones. In deed, the way in which industries go about their traditional businesses have changed. The social media and mobile phones have set a new precedence in these industries. There is unprecedented rush into disrupting the traditional activities firms. For example, firms are moving towards changing their business models with a view of tapping the opportunities that have come in the era of internet technology. To some extent, the move is useful to the business community because it has increased the efficiency in performing company transactions. For example, banks and the mobile phone network providers have partnered to enabled wireless transfer of money. The idea behind uberfication is to improve the mode of interaction between the companies and the customers. Some of the disruptions are beneficial, but others seem to project unknown outcomes. In light with this proposition, some critics tend to warn against bubbles that would come because of the move. Such criticism tends to border on the dot.com crush of the year 2000. In the years that preceded year 2000, many investors rushed into injecting their capitals to the internet business in anticipation of making huge profits. It did not happen as the investors had predicted. Critics hold that investors and industries have overdone the effects of uberfication. At the same time, they recognize that the phenomenon hinges on the technology innovation and invention. Innovation and invention would drive the world into believing that the uberfication is tenable, but the truth is the investors must not rush into over doing it. Some analysts believe look uberfication as disruption whereas look at as technological advancement. The second view seems to value the positive impacts that businesses are likely to tap from this trend. There two notable impacts of uberfication namely buy-side – here the level of interaction between the customers and business owners has increased considerably. Consequently, businesses have attempted to optimise the services that they provide to the customers. In essence, the move tends to drive competitive advantage for various businesses that embraces the idea. The primary concern of marketers is to maintain a close relationship with the customers. Firms have approached the concept of customer relationship introducing customer care desk to handle the complaints and issues of the clients. Many organizations have embraced the social medial platforms in doing their businesses. There is some rush among the business communities to tap opportunities provided by internet technology provided through the mobile phones. The businesses have began feeling the re-set of customer expectations. The social network and internet platform seem to set a new precedence that many firms are unlikely to attain. For instance, customers in some part of Asia can access products in the retail store in the United States through the online platform. The customer might goes as far as buying the product, but the retail store would find it challenging to deliver the product with the urgency required by the customer. Whereas the online platform has expanded the market for the products, it exposed businesses to transitional problems. Push-back against the disruptions brought by uberfication include organized street protests against the existing systems (Minoli, 2011). Largely, linking people through the online platform is quite easy and fast. It follows that any business that fails to align with the demands of the customers is likely to soil its name very fast within the social platform. Uberfication is permeating freelance-based economy. The traditional trends of accessing and sell of products is under threat and firms need to adjust and fit in the new models brought by uberfication. The way people order and receive services in the market has greatly changed necessitating change in the business approach. Additionally, uberfication also usher changes in design thinking. The online platform allows the customers to access a lot of information they need about their supposed products. In this case, there are chances that firms will have to change their approaches of marketing in order to convince the customers. 3. Characteristics of the next generation of internet Briggs and Burke (2010) are certain that in near future the world would use information technology services to receive internet broadcast, internet video-phones, and medical services among others. Literary, this change would mean that computers of the next generation would be sophisticated in order to give these services. The next generation internet server would bear a complex design that would enable it to meet the requirements of e-society. It follows that the characteristics and architecture design for the next generation internet servers would be different from what we have today. By definition, the next generation server refers to a computer designed with networking capability to provide e-services to the online community. One of the early signs of the next generation internet is the cloud computing (Minoli, 2011). The technology enables wireless connection to data network. This trend is suggestive that computer connectivity is moving towards what the mobile provides to their users. The mobile phones are already internet enabled gadgets and the users can enjoy internet interface at the disposal of their mobile phone. 3.1 Connectivity and accessibility of the Internet Internet connectivity is one of the factors that determine the generation of users. Initially, the connection to internet was through computers connected to servers with networks. In this type of connection, only computers connected through the network cables received the internet signals. Afterword, more improvement on technology occurred. This development changed the trends of consumption of internet among users. The mobile phone companies made computers that were internet enabled. Largely, the internet connection through mobile phones set new precedence of internet consumption. Connectivity to the internet is expanding to meet the needs of everyone that has an internet-enabled gadget. Here, the technology installed in the gadgets used for internet interface tends to define the mode of connectivity. To the generation that has internet-enabled mobile phones, iPods, tablets, and laptops are connected through the cloud network of the mobile phone providers. It means that anyone with internet-enabled phone within the internet connectivity zone. One can switch to internet connection from the comfort of his mobile phone. The mobile phone models produced in the current age have various internet features. This is suggestive that nearly everyone would be within the internet connectivity zone the moment he or she acquires internet-enabled phone. The world is heading towards cloud connectivity. In this case, internet connection is through a wireless means drawn from the network server. The architecture and design of computers for the next generation tend to provide for the cloud connection (OECD, 2009). This means that internet connection would be mobile. One can move with the computer to a given location and connect to the internet through the cloud connectivity. There portable gadgets meant to realize the cloud connectivity. These gadgets include broadband and wireless software that enables laptops to detect cloud network. Furht and Escalante (2010) espoused that wireless powered network is the road that the internet connectivity will soon embrace. There features such as Wi-Fi which allows wireless internet connection to computers or mobile phones installed with this feature. The Wi-Fi feature works within a limited range and the server network should be on for the users to access the network. The Wi-Fi connection enhances mobility and access to internet from any corner. In some developed countries, internet access through Wi-Fi is available to the population. The Wi-Fi technology is suggestive that the future generation would have easy access to internet connectivity through the wireless platform. The technology enables internet connectivity to all internet-enabled gadgets with the Wi-Fi program. Some analysts suggest that the evolution of radio access technology is enough reason to believe that future internet connectivity will have plenty of itinerant users launching resource-greedy multimedia-enabled services. Central to the question of connectivity is how access and backhaul networks will cope with performance variability inherent of radio transmission. Expectedly, the future internet will have more specialized and personalized Quality of Service (QoS) management based on keeping accurate Quality of Experience (QoE) levels. Besides, users of internet-enabled mobile phones are unlike the traditional fixed access case, thus necessitating creation of different tolerance thresholds. Another expectation is that internet content will increased by at least 6 factors in order to distribute multimedia network. As the world is moving to a state where the internet would provide multimedia content and services with superior quality, the speed of connection would virtually increase. Another element of connectivity in this era that is likely to set precedence of future internet is cellular network using the home network (mobile phone network in home country) and visited network (mobile phone network of the foreign country). In this case, the internet users have a permanent address used in the temporary connection during internet connection outside one’s home country. The mobile phone internet protocol is useful in identification of the internet users. Additionally, mobile phone network providers would play a significant role in defining the connection and speed of the internet. 3.2 Internet of things Internet of things is a case where objects or people have unique identifiers and they are equipped with the ability to make data transfer over the network without experiencing human to computer interface or human-to-human interface. Internet of things has emanated from the marriage of wireless technologies, micro-electromechanical systems and the internet. In the language of internet of things, a thing might represent an individual implanted with a microchip to monitor the heart beat, an animal implanted with a biochip transponder, vehicle with built in sensors to alert the driver of any misfortune like tire pressure, and any equipment assigned IP address in order to transfer signal or information to the network. The internet of things is synonymous with machine-to-machine communication in which the manufacturer or user is able to establish or monitor the activity of the machine (Briggs, & Burke, 2010). Products with the built in internet of things give their owners easy time to monitor their activities as well as identify any complication. For instance, there are motor vehicles equipped with the internet of things technology. These are capable of relaying information about the location of the vehicle or the complication that the vehicle is experiencing. The internet of things finds its application in logistic management. Manufacturers and logistic companies use the technology to monitor the movement of their vehicles or products. It makes the planning in the logistic companies easy because the company is able to identify the challenges facing the movement of the product. Another advantage of the internet of things is that it finds its application in surveillance of most critical objects (OECD, 2009). Logistic companies tend equip certain products with this equipment in order to keep an eye on them. Thus, as the product move from one location, the owner is capable of monitoring its movement and intercepting it before it get lost. For an object to be connected using internet of things technology, it has to be equipped with a microchip. The microchip helps in the detection of the object to the internet. Various companies across the globe have shown interest in applying this technology to monitor items that they would want to put under close surveillance. The item also finds application in monitoring patients. It means that the internet would be useful in monitoring activities in the society. Arguably, the technology would surveillance and efficiency in management of the logistics. In the past, monitoring the activities of drivers of logistic companies was a problem because the management of these firms were incapable of locating the exact place where the driver was. The internet of things makes it easy to identify the location because it links with the software for locating items. According to Furht and Escalante (2010), there are signals that internet of things is likely to affect businesses including provision of healthcare and security. In the tour industry for instance, the management of these firms like renting their vehicles to customers that go alone with these vehicles. Since the management of these firms need to monitor the movement of their vehicles, there is high likelihood that internet of things would offer solution to these problems. 3.3. IPv.4 towards IPv.6–A new internet protocol At the time of its design in 1978, Internet Protocol version 4 (IPv4) was not only powerful, but also effective. The design came at a time when the existing computer networking protocols did not support distribution of functions. Clustering computers around central mainframe was the assumption that affected the design of IP addresses prior to the development of the IPv4 (Horley, 2013). Interestingly, the world considered 16 bits of space in the packet headers as extravagant. Henten and Tadayoni (2013) agree that 32 bits in global networking was indeed a major development in the networking industry. It set a new precedent into the industry by moving the computer networks from private owned facilities to public utility. Additionally, the development of IPv4 gave the world opportunity to submit application for address space. Unlike the isolated networks of corporate, the IP v4 could address the global needs at that time. It was free from disruptions that were common with private owned networks that began numbering with ‘1’ and proceeded afterword. The design of the address architecture is suggestive that it was meant for interconnection. The Internet Protocol version (IPv6) stemmed from the need to accommodate more addresses on forecasted internet growth. The forecasters thought of cell phone deployment, PDA introduction, smart appliances, and billions of new users. The invention of new technology is another factor that led to development of the IPv6. The developers of this technology also thought of new technologies such as VoIP, always on internet access DSL and cable, and evolving computer applications. Telstra (2012) agrees that IPv4 was not only finite, but also lacked the sophistication to accommodate some of the appliances used in internet. The forecasters believe that IPv4 is showing depletion this is likely to happen between 2010 and 2017. This meant that the world to usher in a new internet protocol that would meet the needs of the changing technology as well as new technology. It was designed in 1993 and by 1999, it was ready for use (DeNardis, 2009). The usage and management of IPv6 is similar to IPv4. IPv6 was a solution to problems that IPv4 failed to perform. Some of the solutions that it would provide include there was inadequate addresses to accommodate new customers. The characteristics of the internet were dial-up customers and leased-line. It means that connecting new customers called for creating new addresses. IPv6 created more addresses that could accommodate new network capabilities. Further, it provided a room for creating new network capabilities. Growth in technology is a proof that changes are likely to occur in future, thus preparing to accommodate the same is necessary. 4. A picture of the future – the internet in 100 years The growth in internet usage in the last decade is suggestive that world is moving towards applying internet in nearly every segment and sector. In the next 100 years, everybody would be using phones and other appliances with internet capability. The appliances would be more sophisticated than the ones we have today. Probably, the world might move to create advanced internet protocol that would be capable of meeting the intensified growth. Conclusion The need to address communication problems gave birth to internet in 1960s. The idea has evolved from simple application to more sophisticated application. The pioneer work at ARPANET set the precedence of creating the internet. Several changes have occurred since that time including change of internet protocol from private vendor computers to internet protocol version four IPv4 and further to version six IPv6. Internet connectivity has evolved over time and the future is suggestive that more changes are likely to occur. Initially, computers were connected from servers connected to the internet. The trend changed to cloud connectivity where internet connection was through wireless system. The design of the mobile phones and similar appliances expanded the growth and consumption of the internet. Other than internet connectivity, the world is embracing internet of things in connecting the objects to internet. Largely, these changes seem to show that internet connection is likely to increase in the future as more people continue acquiring gadgets that would take them online. References Bhargav, A., & Kumar, V. B., (2010). Secure Java: For Web Application Development. New York: CRC Press. Bishop, C. P., & Hines, A., (2012). Teaching about the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Briggs, A. & Burke, P. (2010). Social History of the Media: From Gutenberg to the Internet. New York: Polity. DeNardis, L., (2009). Protocol Politics: The Globalization of Internet Governance. New York: MIT Press. Erl, T., Puttini, R., & Mahmood, Z., (2013). 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